Hygiene Theateria and AntiVaxtopia

About ten years ago I was listening to David Brooks on some news talk show. He had a take about America's declining trust in government that went something like this:

"Social Security would never pass today. You couldn't tell people: 'We're going to take some money out of your paycheck each month, spend it on other things, but don't worry, it will be there for you when you retire.'"

It's an interesting hypothesis, and one I'm inclined to believe, but it's not testable. But we might have something close that is testable.

I have a prediction for how I see Covid-19 changing our society. I think people are going to sort into two types of communities: Hygiene Theateria and Antivaxtopia. Both will feature very different people but movitaved by the same phenomenon: we're never going back to normal.

What is Normal?

It's a freezing cold take to say that antivaxxers are refusing the jab because they don't trust institutions: whether it's public health officials, Big Pharma, or mainstream media. It's beyond political; they even boo Trump when he touts the vax. 

No, my take is that antivaxxers are going to go beyond resisting the covid-19 vaccination. They are going to start resisting all vaccines and all institutions that require any of them. This is Brooks' hypothesis in play; something that we used to go along with (vaccination) is being reintroduced and many of the public are resisting. Whereas "normal" was getting all your shots, the new Covid normal is refusing all shots and rejecting places that require them.

So I think antivaxxers will start sorting into communities, employers, and other institutions that shun ALL mandates. They will create their own Antivaxtopia (and natural selection will have its way with them in a few generations).

New Risk Normal

My other prediction has to do with Covid's endemic stage. We are (hopefully) approaching a place where the lethality of Covid is falling under normal levels of risk, like the flu or car accidents. But for a certain portion of society, that concept of "normal risk" has been recalibrated and they will never feel safe again. 

They will never trust being in crowded places without a mask. They will seek out communities and institutions that have strict mandates where entrants must show a passport that proves you've been boosted in the last six months. 

They will always carry hand sanitizer and extra N95 masks. They will continue to hang plexiglass in front of their businesses registers. They will only work at jobs that allow full remote work. They will create their own Hygiene Theateria. 

Of course, there will still be a plurality of normies who continue to get vaccinated and wear masks in places that require them but otherwise continue living their life as normally as they can. But for these two groups, I think there is no going back to normal.