Oh, how I love when a big study comes along, gets published in the NYT with beautiful interactive graphics, and totally confirms all of my communitarian priors. The title says it all, "Vast New Study Shows a Key to Reducing Poverty: More Friendships Between Rich and Poor." This is my Maxwell's demon problem. I'll have more thoughts in a future post, but if there is an argument for MLK's Beloved Community, this is it.
Regarding my post about abortion being a losing issue for Republicans: their favorable/unfavorable rating has barely budged. However, their Senate odds in the mid terms has swung in their favor. It could be a lot of factors, but I think the Dobbs ruling definitely works against them. (Popularism ftw!)
Regarding my comment about pessimistic people appearing smart.
Stephen Colbert was right: “Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is the furthest thing from it.”
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) August 14, 2022
A worldwide survey of 200k people finds cynical people are thought of as smarter... but that, in reality, cynics test lower on cognitive & competency tests. https://t.co/KLc33j4JFK pic.twitter.com/ai2V4tzhf5
So not only does that bit of advice hold up in a study, the study also shows why we should ignore that advice: pessimistic people are less competent. Of course, I don't think the answer here is to ignore pessimistic people. I still think averaging the responses of experts—optimistic, pessimistic, and otherwise—is the best solution.
I just thought this was cool for some super 90s nostalgia.
In reading an essay, I came across the term “idea inoculation.” It reminded me of my post about the diffusion of rhetoric. This kind of explains my worry about activists controlling a message for The Persuadables and how they can actively do harm to a good cause.
In the essay—called Bioinfohazards by Megan Crawford, Finan Adamson, and Jeffrey Ladish—the writers contrast idea inoculation with the Streisand effect.
“In the case of the Streisand Effect, attempts to remove information are what catapult it into public consciousness. In the case of idea inoculation, attempts to publicize an idea ensure that the concept is ignored or dismissed out of hand, with no further consideration given to it."
A good example is the impact of pollution causing frogs to forgo intersex copulation in favor of intrasex copulation (ie it made the frogs gay), a phenomenon that took a while to catch on because it was being espoused by Alex Jones, he of little credibility.
The essay's writers continue:
"Presenting a bad version of a good idea can cause people to dismiss it prematurely and not take it seriously, even when it’s presented in better form.
Trying to change norms can backfire. If the first people presenting a measure to reduce the publication of risky research are too low prestige to be taken seriously, no effect might actually be the best-case scenario. An idea that is associated with disreputable people or hard-to-swallow arguments may itself start being treated as disreputable and face much higher skepticism and hostility than if better, proven arguments had been presented.”
This is tough because activists are the most action-oriented people, the first to promote a cause. So how do you get in front of the low-credibility ones to improve the messaging before they do more harm than good, when you're still bogged down in getting the theory right? I guess the answer is for popularists to become more activist-y.
For instance, red state Kansas defeated the anti-abortion ballot initiative by imbuing freedom into their message, with phrases like “strict government mandates” and “Say no to more government control.” It reminded me of a David Shor story about how the campaign ads that Democratic staffers liked best polled worse with the public.
There is an interesting read about "respectability politics." Rosa Parks was hand picked to spark the bus boycott because "she’s morally clean, she’s reliable, nobody had nothing on her, she had the courage of her convictions." With MLK noting “nobody can doubt the height of her character.”
Sadly, the person who delivers the message is more important than the actual message.
Related to this @tylercowen column, a graph that (frankly) shocked me when I first saw it:
— Basil Halperin (@BasilHalperin) August 11, 2021
Teen suicide rates drop by 15-20% in summer months when school is out – whereas for older groups, suicides rise then
(A drop in December during winter break, too)https://t.co/M80Iw1qDr0 https://t.co/4ZqEMYDGP9 pic.twitter.com/oSkZJzARmv
School is literally killing our youth and yet I never hear any policy suggestions that will result in less school.
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